Australia's climate faces uncertain future

Australia could be hit by sizeable temperature increases and almost twice as many natural disasters by the end of the century, according to new data released on Tuesday.

The study, conducted by the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) and the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), used projections from 40 global climate models in the most comprehensive analysis of the country's climate future to date.

The results delivered a worrying forecast, with the study revealing with "very high confidence" that temperatures would rise by 1.3 degrees Celsius by 2030 and 5 degrees Celsius by the end of the century.

This will likely mean challenges relating to water resources, impacts upon agriculture and risks to coastal infrastructure.

According to the CSIRO's principal research scientist, Kevin Hennessy, it could also significantly impact the future of the Great Barrier Reef.

"Australia will warm faster than the rest of the world," Hennessy told The Guardian Australia on Tuesday. "Warming of 4-5 degrees Celsius would have a significant effect: there would be increases in extremely high temperatures, much less snow, more intense rainfall, more fires and rapid sea level rises.

"That immediate emissions scenario would have significant effects for Australia. Coral reefs are sensitive to even small changes in ocean temperatures and a 1 degree Celsius rise would have severe implications for the Great Barrier Reef and the Ningaloo Reef."

"The situation is looking grim for the Great Barrier Reef unless we can significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions. A 2- degree Celsius future would be very challenging."

Further impacts could be Australia's amount of flood risks doubling, with "extreme rainfall events" increasing throughout the country, sea levels rising by as much as 82 centimeters and increased days of sweltering conditions forcing more days of extreme fire warnings.

According to Hennessy, the only way the country can alter these effects is by immediately reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

"Achieving that intermediate, rather than higher, emissions path would require significant reductions in global greenhouse gases," he said. "It's difficult to say what will be achieved, there are a lot of negotiations to come. We hope there will be an agreement until 2050 at least, but who knows what will happen in the coming decades."

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